MRV BLOG: MRV Market Commentary April 22, 2024

Check-in here to see the MRV commentary on what we have seen and are seeing in the dairy market.  These insights have been developed from MRV’s proprietary data, industry experience, and industry reports referenced below. Here’s our latest:

Domestic

According to the USDA’s latest sales report for dairy products, we saw an increase in the price of butter with its sales also seeing an increase (MoM). However, with all other commodities (block and barrel cheese, NDM and dry whey) moving in a downward trend over the last month, this suggests a lower price for many dairy products in May.

USDA’s latest cold storage report shows an increase in butter inventories by 9% and a decrease for cheese inventories by 3% over the last month. These butter inventories should support the ramp-up for summer due to seasonality helping to keep supply. On the other side, with milk production and total pounds of protein being down from year-ago levels, this could cause manufacturers to scramble to find enough solids to keep up. As we creep closer and closer to summer season, we might see one last slight decrease before prices steadily climb throughout the summer until the start of winter, however, due to current market conditions MRV still projects June to be a slight increase.

Exports

After a streak of year-over-year volume declines in US exports, it has finally rebound in February. US exports volume grew 3.7% YoY on a milk solids equivalent. However, even with the rebound in February, overall US exports, YTD through February, still show volume being down 1% and value down 10%. This spike in February shows positive growth for US exports and a hopeful beginning for 2024.

Report fromUSDEC

MRV Dairy Dashboard Updates

MRV has added a couple new features for our customers to be better informed and organized with their dairy products. We have released a beta report view associated with the already existing “product purchase history “tab. On the bottom right of that report, click the  “by contract” button. This will rearrange the view by contract in a horizontal manner. The other update is a whole new report for users to view the commodity market. Simply go to the last tab titled “commodity forecast” to view the latest trends in commodity prices.

Report from MRV Dairy Dashboard

Summary

After seeing a slight decrease in many products for May, MRV projects June to be a slight increase with some exception. Inventories for butter remain strong, however, with cheese inventories being lower, manufacturers could struggle to find enough solids to keep up. US export market, although still marginally down, saw a rebound in February. MRV has added some additional tools to the MRV Dairy Dashboard to support with how our customers view their products and a better way to keep track of the latest commodity trends and forecast where they could go.

This information cited by MRV Marketing, LLC is for informational and reference purposes only. It is not intended to be a conclusive statement of future market conditions. It is not legal advice or legal documents. The data used in these documents contains references to information created and maintained by other organizations or agencies. Please note that MRV Marketing, LLC does not control and cannot guarantee the accuracy of these outside materials.

Statistical data referenced here is gleaned from reports by MRV Proprietary Data, Daily Dairy Report, USDEC, CME Group, Dairy Herd Management, and USDA.